The Raiders Are 3-0, But Have The Worst AFC West Title Odds

The Raiders aren't getting much respect from Vegas, but what do you expect when you share a division with Patrick Mahomes 👇 (3 minute read)

The Untouchables (For Now)

What more can the Raiders and Broncos do to earn some respect from oddsmakers?! At 3-0, they’re the only remaining undefeated teams in the AFC, but hold the second and fourth-best odds to win the AFC West

  • Kansas City Chiefs: -115 (bet $115, win $100)

  • Denver Broncos: +375

  • Los Angeles Chargers: +400

  • Las Vegas Raiders: +475

The Broncos’ wins, despite leading to a +50 point differential, have come against teams that are now a combined 0-9. They’ve played well, but we’ll need to see them knock off a contender before assuming they’re legit

On the other hand, the Raiders look legit behind QB Derek Carr, and have put together an impressive run of close wins

  • Week 1: beat the Ravens 33-37 in OT

  • Week 2: beat the Steelers 26-17

  • Week 3: beat the Dolphins 31-28 in OT

Jon Gruden’s silver and black offense has dominated opponents through the air, tallying at least 380 passing yards in each game so far

Carr’s blossomed into a legitimate MVP candidate in his fourth season under Gruden, and currently leads the NFL in total passing yards with the eighth-best QBR. Here’s where he ranks among the favorites to win the award

  • Matt Stafford: +600

  • Tom Brady/Patrick Mahomes: +700

  • Aaron Rodgers/Josh Allen/Kyler Murray: +800

  • Dak Prescott/Justin Herbert: +1400

  • Lamar Jackson +1600

  • Derek Carr +2500


The Favorite

Despite the 1-2 start, the Chiefs are still favored to win the AFC West (-115) and the Super Bowl (+600), as their preseason odds have yet to budge. Their losses have come by a combined seven points, and at the hands of two top-10 teams in the Ravens and Chargers

Vegas’ faith in the Chiefs lies in the presence of their half-billion-dollar man under center. With Mahomes at QB, the Chiefs have only ever been one of the top teams in the NFL

  • 2018: 12-4 (Lost in the AFC Championship Game)

  • 2019: 12-4 (Won the Super Bowl)

  • 2020: 14-2 (Lost in the Super Bowl)

One thing to worry about though is the Chiefs’ defensive struggles so far

  • 2021: 31st in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed

Things should even out as the season goes on, but their ability to generate stops and get the ball back in Mahomes’ hands is certainly something to keep an eye on going forwards


For My Parlay Gurus

After all this AFC West talk, you know we have to look at a big parlay heading into the weekend. Check this out

  • Chiefs (-7) @ Eagles

  • Ravens (EVEN) @ Broncos

  • Raiders (+3) @ Chargers on MNF

Betting the Raiders to remain undefeated (+140), along with the Chiefs and Raiders spread results in +795 odds. Not a bad payout, but you’ll have to wait for Monday to see if it hits…