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QBs Have Only Won 3 Of The Last 8 Offensive Rookie Of The Year Awards

Trevor Lawrence has always been the clear favorite to win OROY, but the Patriots' QB1 situation has shaken up the rest of the board 😳👇 (4 minute read)

OROY History

Most people assume that QBs ALWAYS win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, but that’s not the case. In the last eight years, the only QBs to win the award were Justin Herbert (2020), Kyler Murray (2019), and Dak Prescott (2016).

NFL Offensive ROY Winners by Position:

  • 34 – RBs

  • 11 – QBs

  • 9 – WRs

However, this season QBs are all over the board, occupying the top five spots based on betting odds. The No. 1, 2, and 3 picks from this past 2021 NFL draft headline the list

Odds to win 2021 OROY:

  • QB Trevor Lawrence: +400 (bet $100, win $400)

  • QB Mac Jones: +600

  • QB Justin Fields/QB Trey Lance/QB Zach Wilson: +750

  • RB Najee Harris: +850

  • TE Kyle Pitts: +1000

The Favorite: Trevor Lawrence (+400)

In the last ten years, Kyler Murray (2019) and Cam Newton (2011) were the only No. 1 overall picks to win the NFL Offensive ROY award. Besides his immense talent, Trevor Lawrence has several things going for him this season.

  1. Big-game experience: Lawrence was 34-2 as a starter at Clemson, having only lost in the College Football Playoff. As a freshman, he was able to defeat Alabama for the National Championship. In his college career, he completed 66.6% of his passes for 10,098 yards and 90 TDs.

  2. Weapons: Lawrence was expected to be the favorite for this award no matter which team he was drafted by, but the Jaguars have some weapons to increase his chances. Players like RB James Robinson, WR Laviska Shenault, WR DJ Clark, and WR Marvin Jones should help Lawrence flourish in his rookie season.

  3. Competition in the AFC South: The Jaguars’ offense will get a crack at the Texans and Titans twice this season. Both of those teams’ pass defenses ranked in the bottom third of the league in 2020

The Dark Horse: Mac Jones (+600)

The moment the Patriots cut Cam Newton and gave Mac Jones the starting role, Jones’ odds jumped from an average of +1000 to as short as +500 for Offensive ROY. New England is still looking to climb out of this post-Tom Brady era, and they believe their guy is Mac Jones

  1. Bill Belichick factor: Jones has an opportunity to play under Coach Belichick, who has consistently found ways to get the most out of his players. In his head coaching career, with QBs making their very first NFL start, he is a perfect 6-0

  2. Strong team: The Patriots have a great defense, solid offensive line, and a skilled group of running backs. RB Damien Harris continues to impress as he enters Year 3, while rookie RB Rhamondre Stevenson was the NFL’s top rusher in the preseason

  3. More wins: Although the award is not based on team wins, it doesn’t hurt if your team is successful. Oddsmakers have shown confidence in Jones by boosting the Patriots’ win total to 9.5. That’s three more wins than Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars at 6.5

The Best Non-QB: Najee Harris (+850)

The last running back to take home the award was Giants RB Saquon Barkley in 2018. As a matter of fact, running backs have won the Offensive ROY in four of the last eight seasons. Najee Harris proved how good he can be at the college level, now he’ll carry a large workload at the professional level

  1. Offensive line: While the Steelers’ offensive line has lost three starters in Maurkice Pouncey, Matt Feiler, and Alejandro Villanueva, they do have some fresh blood up front. Rookie Kevin Dotson was impressive in limited action this preseason

  2. New OC Matt Canada: It’s hard to predict what the Steelers’ offense will look like, but having Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator will help Harris. Coach Canada is known for his misdirection schemes, motion concepts, and using elements of the spread offense, while still focusing on running the ball

Big Bet On Mac

The Patriots released Cam Newton last week, allowing Mac Jones to become QB1. Before the odds shifted, a bettor at the Borgata Hotel in Atlantic City jumped at the opportunity to bet on Jones to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

  • Bet: $2,000 on Jones’ +1000 odds for OROY

  • Potential payout: $20,000

Now, his odds are +600, so the same $2,000 bet would win you $12,000. That’s a nice payout, but not what it could have been 🙄