Brady Has 9 TDs in 2 Games...Why Is His Prop Bet Line 2.5?

Tom Brady leads the NFL in passing TDs this season, yet his prop bet is set at 2.5 vs the Rams this weekend. Let's take a closer look...(3 minute read) 👇

Week 3 Matchup: Bucs vs Rams

One of the biggest games this Sunday will be the 2-0 Bucs heading to Los Angeles to take on the 2-0 Rams. These two NFC powerhouses are meeting for the second straight season, following the Rams’ 27-24 win at Tampa Bay last fall

  • Spread: Bucs -1.5, Rams +1.5

  • Money-line: Bucs -125 (bet $125, win $100), Rams +105

  • Over/Under: 55.5

Although it’s intriguing to make a money-line bet here, I’m more interested in Tom Brady’s passing touchdown prop bet. Oddsmakers are setting his over/under at 2.5 vs the Rams 👀

  • Over 2.5 passing TDs: +150

  • Under 2.5 passing TDs: -200


Red Hot Start

Tom Brady is on pace to have his best season EVER. Let me remind you, he’s 44 years old and is playing in his 22nd NFL season. That’s the true definition of “Father Prime” right there

He leads the league with nine touchdown passes, the most he’s ever thrown through the first two games of a season

  • Week 1 vs Dallas: 379 passing yards & 4 passing TDs

  • Week 2 vs Atlanta: 276 passing yards & 5 passing TDs

More records: If Brady were to throw four more touchdowns against the Rams this weekend, he would join Russell Wilson (14 in 2020) and Patrick Mahomes (13 in 2018) as the only players in NFL history to throw 13 or more scoring passes in the first three games of a team’s season


Challenging Opponent

Brady may be off to a record-breaking start, but he hasn’t been as dominant against the Rams in his career

  • Record: 3-2

  • Passing yards: 241.6 per game

  • Passing TDs: 2.0 per game

Brady will be up against a strong Rams defense, one that is led by Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd. They are giving up just 19.0 PPG this season. However, what’s even more impressive is the 0.5 passing TDs allowed per game, which is tied for first in the NFL


Make It A Parlay

Although it sounds like a tough task to throw over 2.5 passing TDs vs the Rams, Brady is always up for the challenge. Taking the over at +150 is a great bet to make. However, if you want to hustle more money, this parlay could cash in

  • Bucs’ money-line: -125

  • Bucs vs Rams over 55.5: -110

  • Tom Brady over 2.5 passing TDs: +150

If you bet $100 on this parlay, it would be a $759 payout. Because of that, this is a Bucs/Brady stan account this weekend 😏