Struggling Squads

Tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup features two teams who have seen their season-opening momentum conspicuously dwindle over the past few weeks. The Bills came into the year as a clear Super Bowl contender (now +1200), and, despite a puzzling loss to the Jets in the season-opener, they looked dominant for much of the first four weeks, punctuated by a statement blowout win over division rival Miami 😤

• After the loss to the Jags in London and an unsatisfying win vs. the injury depleted Giants, the Bills had a chance to get rolling again vs. New England

• The Patriots have struggled mightily this season, and Josh Allen has had their number throughout his young career. However, the Bills started off this divisional matchup poorly, and things only got worse in an embarrassing loss 😬

The Buccaneers have followed a very different narrative this season, as most fans and analysts alike saw them as a bottom feeder coming into the season. However, journeyman QB Baker Mayfield has breathed life into Tampa Bay and instilled his underdog mentality, resulting in a surprising early season run. Following back-to-back losses to Detroit and Atlanta, this week represents a pivotal test for the 3-3 Bucs 👀

Buccaneers vs. Bills Betting Preview (subject to change)

• Spread: Bills -8.5

• Moneyline: Bills -430, Buccaneers +340

• Over/Under: 43

Differing Expectations

To be fair to Tampa Bay, most would have considered a 3-3 start to the season as a monumental victory. However, now that the Bucs have flashed their potential with Mayfield’s resurgence, a fall back to the league’s bottom feeders would be tremendously disappointing. The Bucs have to be looking at the Bills’ recent performances and thinking: why not us? 🏴‍☠️

• Tampa Bay plays in the worst division in football, as the NFC South completely lacking any legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Saints have the best odds at +5500

• Given this divisional situation and the win-now construction of their roster, the goal here is clear. Baker and the offense have shown only short bursts of explosiveness of late — can they rediscover their early season form? 🔥

For the Bills, the consequences of a lost season seem more dire — after last season’s home playoff flameout vs. Cincinnati, this feels like the final chance for this core to make their long-awaited Super Bowl run. After all, they can’t keep living on the goodwill of that magical showdown in Kansas City forever. While Josh Allen is obviously here to stay, the defensive core that has defined this era of Buffalo football is getting up there in age 👀

• The drama surrounding star WR Stefon Diggs, particularly regarding his relationship with Allen, only adds fuel to the fire

• There’s still plenty of high-octane potential in Buffalo, as shown by the dominant win in Miami. But the clock is ticking on these Bills — can they realize the potential we all see before it runs out? ⏳

Trivia Question: Baker Mayfield set the NFL rookie passing TDs record with 27 back in 2018 — does he still hold the record?

For My Parlay Gurus

This is obviously a steep spread, but I think the Bills will finally feel the urgency of their season slipping away. Look for a performance in line with the Miami beatdown, with Allen connecting with Diggs and Gabe Davis for a variety of explosive plays. Tampa Bay may very well have an opportunity to win the NFC South, but this matchup won’t help their chances 👇

• Bills -8.5 vs. Bucs: -110

• Josh Allen OVER 1.5 passing TDs: -156

$100 on this bet would win you $162 — if we hit, make sure you email [email protected] for a chance to win up to $100*. Many will enter, only some will win 😉

Want more sports content from Overtime? Check us out on TikTok 🗣

Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Join thousands of other informed subscribers

Trivia Answer: He does not — Justin Herbert took the mantle in 2020 with 31 TD passes, a record that has yet to be broken 🏆

*NO PURCHASE NECESSARY. Open to legal residents of the 50 United States and the District of Columbia. Must be 18 years of age or older to enter. Many will enter, only some will win. Giveaway ends 12 hours after the completion of the final game references within the giveaway. The winner will be notified via the email address used to enter. Restrictions apply. See the General Conditions and Releases sections of Overtime's Terms of Use at https://overtime.tv/terms for additional giveaway terms

©2023 Overtime Sports, Inc. All rights reserved.